Future of work

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Future of Work – Preparing for Disruptions: Indian context How India is gearing up in Preparations and towards supporting the Workforce?? Introduction : Changing nature of work has created disruptions, discontinuities as well as opportunities. This is not seen in some selected countries but across the world, be it a developed country, or a developing country. Like any other country, India has its own unique set of challenges in preparing and supporting its workforce from a governance point of view. Take the case of India, thanks to globalization and IT revolution, India became the back office of the world , with “Bangalored”, a euphemism , which signifies job loss elsewhere in the developed economy entering the oxford Dictionary Governments in pursuit of economic growth love to invest in physical capital far less interested in investing in human capital, which is the sum total of a population’s health, skills, knowledge, experience, and habits. That’s a mistake many countries made, the case for India was slightly different thanks to “ Nehruvian socialism” in the post-independence era. In the recent years this has only been further augmented with opening up of the economy further and leveraging of automation/ innovation across sectors. Today India is at the forefront in terms of technical education and English speaking population with the right skills for the global demand in new forms of employment. While all this is true in terms of progress, for the size of India with a Billion plus population, it is equally disheartening to find that the informal sector has only increased if not lesser with more than 75% of the population still in the informal side with no benefits and protection. Governments have an important role to play in fostering human capital acquisition. Fortunately for India since independence significant progress has been made on 3 fronts: 1. Formal Jobs 2. Education access 3. Health care Today’s governments across the world have a more definite role to play in the area of social inclusion and life long learning facilitation for it’s work force and population as a whole. with the help of world wide social organisations, Governments, and societies at large. All need to work in tandem, in order to Benefit from the torrential opportunities, thanks to new technologies and disruptive innovations, unseen in the history of mankind, Can lead to prosperity and health for most if not all
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  • 1. Abdul Sukkur . S Future of work – Preparing for Disruptions: Indian context How India is gearing up in Preperations and towards supporting the Work force?? Introduction : Changing nature of work has created disruptions , discontinuities as well as opportunities. This is not seen in some selected countries but across the world , be it a developed country, or a developing country. Like any other country , India has it’s own unique set of challenges in preparing and supporting it’s work force from a governance point of view. Take the case of India , thanks to globalisation and IT revolution, India became the back office of the world , with “Bangalored”, an euphemism ,which signifies job loss elsewhere in the developed economy entering the oxford Dictionary - Governments in pursuit of economic growth love to invest in physical capital far less interested in investing in human capital, which is the sum total of a population’s health, skills, knowledge, experience, and habits. That’s a mistake many countries made, the case for India was slightly different thanks to ― Nehruvian socialism‖ in the post independence era Governments have an important role to play in fostering human capital acquisition. Fortunately for India since independence significant progress has been made on 3 fronts: 1. Formal Jobs 2. Education access 3. Health care In the recent years this has only been further augmented with opening up of the economy further and leveraging of automation/ innovation across sectors. Today India is at the forefront in terms of technical education and English speaking population with right skills for the global demand in new forms of employment. While all this is true in terms of progress , for the size of India with a Billion plus population, it is equally disheartening to find that the informal sector has only increased if not lesser with more than 75% of the population still in the informal side with no benefits and protection. Globally as well as in India, Widespread automation is simultaneously disrupting industries and creating new ones. New technologies are transforming day-to-day life by creating new lines of business, new types of firms and new types of workers to operate them.
  • 2. Platforms now enable firms to enter markets without physically being there, exercise outsized influence and grow without vertically integrating. As Artificial Intelligence (AI) and new production methods take root, the demand for low-skilled labor lessens while that for advanced cognitive skills, sociobehavioral skills, and skill combinations associated with greater adaptability is rising. These shifts present uncertainties that all countries must face in order to remain competitive in the landscape of the future. Human capital- A new frame work Kim Yong Kim, former President of the World Bank Group, writes about how governments in pursuit of economic growth love to invest in physical capital—new roads, beautiful bridges, gleaming airports, and other infrastructure. But they are typically far less interested in investing in human capital, which is the sum total of a population’s health, skills, knowledge, experience, and habits. That’s a mistake, because neglecting investments in human capital can dramatically weaken a country’s competitiveness in a rapidly changing world, one in which economies need ever-increasing amounts of talent to sustain growth. Governments have an important role to play in fostering human capital acquisition. Fortunately for India since independence significant progress has been made on 3 fronts: 4. Formal Jobs 5. Education access 6. Health care Since independence setting up of Navaratna (Nine –crown Jewels) companies, nationalisation banks, setting up of large and high class educational infrastructure in the form of IITs, IIMs and IISC, Regional Engineering colleges, State sponsored Arts and science universities, vocational training institutes, Industrial training institutes, and most important Government medical colleges with needed infrastructure. All these are the beneficial outcome of Nehruvian socialism, which helped the teaming millions of lower middle class, lower classes move up the social chain into middle class and further. These institutions enabled partially / if not fully in ensuring that India jumpstarted from 1950’s on: 1. Stable employed and lifelong employed 2. Stable and ever increasing monthly income and promotions with leave and benefits 3. Free / subsidised quality health care 4. Free/ subsidised English medium education Indian Government has been more proactive right from the year 1991 the beginning of liberalisation in India.
  • 3. What was gained was further built upon to propel the middle class further into globally visible occupations etc. At the same time more and more masses started moving towards the urban centres/ cities in India with swelling middle class. In the recent years this has only been further augmented with opening up of the economy further and leveraging of automation/ innovation across sectors. Today India is at the forefront in terms of technical education and English speaking population with right skills for the global demand in new forms of employment. While all this is true in terms of progress , for the size of India with a Billion plus population, it is equally disheartening to find that the informal sector has only increased if not lesser with more than 75% of the population still in the informal side with no benefits and protection. True, benefits / protection in the form of freebies etc. have been offered to the lower income groups through the PDS (Public distribution schemes) of various states, it is not uniform across the country; neither there is guarantee that the said benefit reaches the targeted group in full and is deployed for the purpose given. Also for many state governments, these freebies balloon their deficit and hence this is non-sustainable Yet, there is hope for the 75% of the informal population as some macro measures have been initiated in the recent years which are: 1. UIN ( Unique identification no) – Aadhar cards – digitising the natonal population’s basic details a mammoth effort achieved in large measure 2. Universal” Prime ministers health insurance scheme” for all with a 10 Re per annum premium 3. Universal Bank accounts to all – with a Zero balance , in order to digitize and direct transfer subsidies 4. Very recently announcements on universal social assistance ( monetary) to the tune of 3,000 INR per month to targeted poor population All these are bold initiatives, if persisted upon and implemented in a business-like manner, the socio – economic benefits across the classes is likely to emerge. Still, government will need to work on skill development and tech readies of the rural, agrarian population in order to make the transformation broad based and real. While it’s quite natural for the key stake holders (employees, corporations, societies & countries) to have this fear( of Job loss), the best way to overcome this fear is to catch the Bull by its Horn, i.e. by understanding the basic issues faced in the current changing employment landscape and devise and roll out ways to overcome this fear, rather use this as an opportunity to be capitalised and create value for all concerned.
  • 4. Job losses arise due to 2 basic dilemmas faced worldwide: 1. More and demand for higher wages, benefits are demanded by the work force with lesser and lesser productivity. 2. Customers or service receivers globally are demanding better quality products and services at lesser costs. This has put corporates and Governments across the world to resort to alternative ways to fulfil the market need while ensuring their margins as well. Following Jobs are likely to be gone with the advent of 4th revolution: 1. low & mid skilled jobs 2. Repetitive data analysis, data mining based decision making jobs 3. Difficult to perform jobs, which can be done by Robots. 4. Agriculture decision making process – climatic inputs, crop health, soil health, price forecasting , price stabilisation , real time inputs to farmers in order to save/ minimise their losses and maximise their productivity ( IBM has already developed a tool from India and the world) Though automation and digital technologies continue to eliminate jobs previously performed by people, they also create many new jobs by spawning sectors of work, thereby resulting in a net gain in employment. As routine and job-specific skills are less in-demand, workers must focus on cognitive skills. Human capital progression: In 1980 only 5 in 10 primary school-age children in low-income countries were enrolled in school. By 2015 this number had increased to 8 in 10. In 1980 only 84 of 100 children reached their fifth birthday, compared with 94 of 100 in 2018. A child born in the developing world in 1980 could expect to live for 52 years. In 2018 this number was 65 years. But a large and unfinished agenda remains. Life expectancy in the developing world still lags far behind that of rich countries such as the Republic of Korea, where a girl born in 2018 can expect to live more than 85 years. Nearly a quarter of children under age 5 are malnourished Meanwhile, nearly 60 percent of primary school children in developing countries fail to achieve minimum proficiency in learning As the nature of work changes, human capital becomes more important. Yet significant gaps in human capital persist across the world. These gaps manifested in low education and health outcomes hurt the future productivity of workers and future competitiveness of economies. To address this issue, governments must seek remedies.. 3. Life long learning: Globally, some 250 million children under age 5 are at risk of not reaching their developmental potential in low- and middle-income countries because of stunting or extreme poverty. Some 260 million people ages 15–24 are out of school and out of work.
  • 5. More than 2.1 billion working-age adults (ages 15–64) have low reading proficiency. This module highlights the fact that despite historically low poverty rates and growing life expectancies, the dangers that remain, especially to children under 5, pose a significant risk to development. Poor health care and nutrition at this critical stage of child development, especially during the “first 1000 days” from conception, lead to decreased cognitive function that last into adulthood. Subpar primary schools often don’t ensure basic literacy. Youth employment programs fail to effectively prepare young people transitioning into the workforce. This module explores programs from pre-natal care to youth employment to adult learning. Nelson Mandela, the first president of post apartheid South Africa, once said, “Education is the great engine of personal development. It is through education that the daughter of a peasant can become a doctor, that the son of a mineworker can become the head of the mine, that the child of a farmworker can become the president of a great nation. It is what we make out of what we have, not what we are given, that separates one person from another.” Adult learning(Life long learning) Three promising routes to more effective adult learning programs are better diagnosis and evaluation, better design, and better delivery. Adult learning programs are more successful when they are explicitly linked to employment opportunities Incorporating soft skills or sociobehavioral skills in training design has shown promise in a country like Togo For factory workers in India, acquiring skills such as time management, effective communication, and financial management increased their productivity . Even in low- and middle-income countries, many people are employed in jobs that did not exist three decades ago. India has nearly 4 million app developers; Uganda has over 400,000 internationally certified organic farmers; and China has 100,000 data labelers. Evidence from developed countries points to job polarization—the expansion of high- and low-skill jobs coupled with the decline of middle-skill jobs. The demand for workers who can undertake nonroutine cognitive tasks, such as high-skilled research, is increasing Conversely, the demand for workers for procedural routine tasks, which are often performed in middle-skill jobs such as data entry, is declining because of automation
  • 6. In many developing countries, the demand for highskill workers is increasing The share of workers in high-skill occupations increased by 8 percentage points or more in Bolivia, Ethiopia, and South Africa from 2000 to 2014. But the change in demand for low and middle-skill jobs is more heterogeneous across countries. In Jordan, the share of employment in middle-skill jobs increased by 7.5 percentage points between 2000 and 2016. In Bangladesh, this share fell by almost 20 percentage points during the same period.This change in the demand for workers for low- and middle-skill jobs in developing countries is not surprising. What happens at this end of the skills spectrum is likely to be driven by the competing forces of automation and globalization. The rate of technology adoption tends to vary considerably across developing countries. In Europe and Central Asia, 26 percent of the population had fixed broadband subscriptions in 2016, compared with just 2 percent in South Asia. Globalization is bringing the low- and medium-skill jobs of developed countries to some—but not all—developing countries. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the adoption of digital technology has placed more importance on general cognitive skills and raised the demand for workers with interpersonal skills. In Cambodia, El Salvador, Honduras, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, more than half of firms report shortages of workers with specific sociobehavioral skills, such as commitment to work 4. Returns to work and social protection Innovative Approaches for Ensuring Universal Social Protection for the Future of Work by ILO Workers in emerging economies face lower payoffs to work experience than their counterparts in advanced economies do. In the Netherlands and Sweden, one additional year of work raises wages by 5.5 percent. In Afghanistan, the corresponding figure is 0.3 percent. productivity gains can be made by advancing three priority areas: 1. Decreasing informality in the economy
  • 7. 2. Removing blockages to women in the workplace 3. Enhancing training for agricultural workers The following broad principles can help to guide policy-makers in strengthening social protection systems, including floors (European Commission, 2018; ILO and OECD, 2018: • Universality of protection and accessibility: ensuring effective access for workers in all types of employment, adapted to their situation and needs. • Adequacy: ensuring that social protection systems do not only effectively prevent poverty, but provide appropriate income replacement, in an equitable and sustainable way. • Transferability: ensuring that social protection systems positively support labour market mobility, and account for the structural transformation of the labour market and the economy. • Transparency: ensuring that all actors are fully aware of their rights and responsibilities; that legal frameworks provide for clear and predictable entitlements; and that administrative procedures are as simple and clear as possible, fully harnessing the potential of digital technology while protecting personal data and respecting privacy. • Gender equality: ensuring that social protection systems are sensitive to the realities that women and men face in the labour market, in employment and society, and that they promote gender equality. • Good governance: ensuring that social protection systems are financed in a sustainable and equitable way, as well as efficient management and administration. The following two chapters will discuss some of the policy innovations that can help to prepare social protection systems for the future of work, starting with a discussion of how contributory mechanisms can be better adapted to non-standard forms of employment (Chapter 3), and followed by a discussion on strengthening non- contributory mechanisms to ensure a solid social protection floor (Chapter 4). Wk 5 : Investing in social inclusion: Universal social protection programs, highlighting three policy principles which, considered jointly, should inform a renewed social contract: 1. Encourage universal provision of social assistance, social insurance, and basic quality services. 2. Promote equal protection of all workers, regardless of their type of employment.
  • 8. 3. Improve the fairness of the tax system by supporting progressivity of a broad tax base that complements labor income taxation with the taxation of capital. A social contract envisions the state’s obligations to its citizens and what the state expects in return. This basic concept has evolved over time. For much of history, social contracts have been imposed by force or the threat of it. Technological developments in the digital era merit the injection of new ideas into public debates about social inclusion—defined as improving the ability, opportunity, and dignity of those most disadvantaged in society. Two elements deserve special attention. First, using technology, governments have new ways to reach the poor as well as others who lack access to quality services or tools to manage risks. Second, the changing nature of work implies adjustment costs for workers. Technology has varying impacts on skills and the demand for them in the labor market. This is the right time to think about how to improve social inclusion. The politics of some of the reforms are complex because of the potential tradeoffs between, for example, investments in the current generation of workers versus those in future generations 3 questions : First, how can society frame a new social contract in the context of high informality and the changing nature of work? Second, if a government is given a mandate to prepare a social contract aimed at improving fairness in society, what would be its basic ingredients? third, how can the state finance any proposed reforms? Financing Social inclusion Social inclusion is costly. Simulations suggest that the components of building human capital, including early childhood development and support for literacy and numeracy by grade three, would cost around 2.7 percent of GDP in low-income countries and 1.2 percent of GDP in lower- middleincome countries. The cost of a more comprehensive human capital package is estimated at 11.5 percent of GDP in low-income countries and 2.3 percent of GDP in lower-middle-income countries. In addition to taxes on goods and services, personal and corporate income taxes can play an important role in increasing revenues in developing countries. Just as technology improves delivery
  • 9. systems for social protection programs, it can facilitate income tax collection by increasing the number of registered taxpayers and social security contributions Most of the people in low and middle-income countries covered by social protection receive assistance in the form of in-kind food. The origin of such support is rooted in countries’ historical pursuit of three interconnected objectives, namely attaining self-sufficiency in food, managing domestic food prices, and providing income support to the poor. Understanding the pivotal role of food security is, therefore, central to any poverty response. Food security strategies have traditionally centered on enhancing agricultural production and productivity. India’s state of Chhattisgarh faced a daunting challenge in the mid-2000s. About half of its public food distribution was leaked, meaning that it never reached the intended beneficiaries. Such a situation was not unique to that state and fed into a broad
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