Highlights from Area VI, EUV forecast, results over the NADIR MURI years

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Highlights from Area VI, EUV forecast, results over the NADIR MURI years. J.M. Fontenla LASP-University of Colorado Collaboration with: I. Gonzalez Hernandez (NSO) E. Quemerais (CNRS) C. Lindsey (NWRA). C. SC23. SC24. B. N. A. P. O. Solar cycle situation. 2007.
Highlights from Area VI, EUV forecast, results over the NADIR MURI yearsJ.M. FontenlaLASP-University of ColoradoCollaboration with:I. Gonzalez Hernandez (NSO)E. Quemerais (CNRS)C. Lindsey (NWRA)CSC23SC24BNAPOSolar cycle situation2007AR grew slowly on the near-side, but grew rapidly on the far-sideProduced advanced brightening.Helioseismic data had located this feature.Lyα backscattering had shown this feature brightness on the far-side.AR on far-sideAR on near-side2008Features Synoptic MaskObsolescence mask indicates number of days since each pixel was observed by PSPT. 0 or -1 indicates observation on the same day.Features mask show what is (or was) on the solar surface. Three identified regions correspond to active regions that were reported by NOAA with various numbers.The regions near the poles are never well observed.Carrington LatitudeCarrington Longitude2009 (1)XUV/EUV Irradiance SynthesisComputed spectra at 1 nm resolution, daily since 2005/1/1 (preliminary).The resolution was degraded after the full resolution radiance spectrum was computed for each feature and disk position.52009 (2)A More Difficult CaseEarly weak activity features in Sep 2009. Did not have a steady trend and did not last long.Their forecast is hard but then produce only a very small SSI variation.Forecasted & observed Lyα6black-SRPM at 1Agreen-SOLSTICEviolet-SDO/EVEblue-Thuiller et all.SRPM at 1 nm resolution2010 (1)Comparison of EUV spectra with SDO/EVE and SOLSTICE observations2010 (2)Longer picture on Lyα spectral irradiance2011 (1)SC23 CHAMP neutral density nonlinear fit comparison against SRPM LyαChamp density from J.M. Forbes 2009 data. At 400 km, 11:30 to12:30 local time, -5 to 5 deg center latitude. Scaled value=f(neutral.density)A very simple, but non-linear, scaling matches well the Lyα solar cycle and rotational modulation trends to the neutral density derived by CHAMP at some locations.2011 (2)Forecast case CAn active region was tiny on the disk in the previous rotation, grew a bit before leaving the disk, and much more on the back side. Then stabilized before coming back again to the disk as a very large and bright active region. It was at a location where active regions have emerged and decayed before.Was also observed by GONG since 2011/9/5 just after leaving the solar disk.Below are just preliminary results by only including the change far-side region observed by GONG ongoing work will include evolution of other nearby regions.Data gapIn SOLSTICE2011 (3)Solar physical modelsW m-2 nm-12012 (1) nowcast2012 (2) nowcastForecast case studiesCase study N was published in 2009, case O was presented in NADIR 2009 meeting, case P in 2010 NADIR meeting. Cases A, B, C are presented here.CSC23SC24BNAPOWhere we are at nowCTIPe run with SRPM nowcastSensitivity exam of high-res SSIFuture work
  • Transition opportunities
  • Improvements and comparisons as new cycle reaches max and decays
  • Use of forecast in CTIPe and TIGCM
  • Study relevance of improvements to thermospheric modeling (neutral density, electron density, and ionospheric properties)
  • Recommended
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