Tracking Progress of the 2020 Climate Turning Point

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Highlights a new paper that assesses progress toward six milestones set by Mission 2020 – in energy, transport, land use, industry, infrastructure and finance – that if met would put governments and industries on the path toward achieving the 1.5º C goal. Learn more: https://www.wri.org/events/2019/02/webinar-assessing-progress-toward-six-milestones-global-climate-action
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  • 1. MENGPIN GE, KATIE LEBLING, KELLY LEVIN TRACKING PROGRESS OF THE 2020 CLIMATE TURNING POINT Download the paper at www.wri.org/milestones
  • 2. 2020: the climate turning point Necessary, desirable,
  • 3. 2020: the climate turning point 2030: Sustainable development goals 2050: net zero
  • 4. HUMAN INDUCED WARMING ~ 1˚C ALREADY IPCC
  • 5. HUMANS ARE DOMINANT CAUSE OF RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE The Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), 2018
  • 6. HUMANS ARE DOMINANT CAUSE OF RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE The Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), 2018
  • 7. HUMANS ARE DOMINANT CAUSE OF RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE The Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), 2018
  • 8. … confidence that human activities were raising the heat at the Earth’s surface had reached a “five-sigma” level, a statistical gauge meaning there is only a one-in-a-million chance that the signal would appear if there was no warming. FEBRUARY 25, 2019 / 11:04 AM
  • 9. CLIMATE CHANGE IS ALREADY IMPACTING US TODAY New York Times interactive 2018
  • 10. Wildfire season has gotten almost 20 percent longer over the past 35 years worldwide
  • 11. Hurricanes are becoming more devastating in a changing climate
  • 12. PROJECTED CHANGES DANGEROUS AND COSTLY https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/10/8-things-you-need-know-about-ipcc-15-c-report
  • 13. PROJECTED CHANGES DANGEROUS AND COSTLY https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/10/8-things-you-need-know-about-ipcc-15-c-report
  • 14. PROJECTED CHANGES DANGEROUS AND COSTLY https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/10/8-things-you-need-know-about-ipcc-15-c-report
  • 15. PROJECTED CHANGES DANGEROUS AND COSTLY https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/10/8-things-you-need-know-about-ipcc-15-c-report
  • 16. GLOBAL EMISSIONS CONTINUE TO TICK UPWARDS Estimates for 2015, 2016 and 2017 are preliminary; 2018 is a projection based on partial data. Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018
  • 17. WE NEED TO PEAK EMISSIONS BY 2020 AND RAPIDLY DECLINE THEREAFTER
  • 18. WE KNOW PEAKING EMISSIONS IS POSSIBLE Levin and Rich (2017)
  • 19. – Assess the world’s collective progress toward achieving the six milestones set by Mission 2020 that if met would put us on the path to limit global warming to 1.5º C. – Energy, transport, land use, industry, infrastructure and finance – Identify untapped opportunities for making progress toward those milestones https://www.wri.org/publication/tracking-progress-2020-climate-turning-point TRACKING PROGRESS OF THE 2020 CLIMATE TURNING POINT ANALYSIS
  • 20. HOW WE DETERMINED PROGRESS
  • 21. WORLD VEERING OFF TRACK FROM 2020 MILESTONES
  • 22. KEY FINDINGS FROM THE ANALYSIS • While meaningful progress has been made, we are not yet on track to achieve the 2020 climate turning point. • Progress is uneven across the six milestones. • More transparent tracking of progress is needed across many areas. • Tremendous opportunities to scale up and accelerate action remain untapped across all sectors.
  • 23. ELECTRIC VEHICLES EVs are projected to account for 3 percent of new car sales in 2020
  • 24. HEAVY DUTY VEHICLES Five countries have HDV fuel economy regulations in place 26 cities have joined the C40 Fossil-Fuel-Free Streets Declaration
  • 25. PUBLIC TRANSPORT 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% World Average North America Latin America Africa Target Average Share of Public Transport (2015) OECD, 2017
  • 26. AVIATION EMISSIONS
  • 27. SHIPPING SECTOR ANNOUNCEMENTS Maersk announced a goal to be carbon-neutral by 2050. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced strategy to cut emissions at least 50 percent by 2050 compared to 2007 levels
  • 28. INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT The costs from shifting investments from high-carbon to low- carbon infrastructure will likely be modest
  • 29. ZERO ENERGY BUILDINGS
  • 30. BUILDING UPGRADES
  • 31. HEAVY INDUSTRY TARGETS Develop and publish roadmaps Begin implementing roadmaps Nearly 300 heavy industry companies have registered 677 actions in the Global Climate Action portal of the UNFCCC, committing to initiatives such as: • Science Based Targets (SBTs) • Low Carbon Technology Partnerships initiative (LCTPi) • RE100 • EP100 • Etc.
  • 32. HEAVY INDUSTRY EMISSIONS
  • 33. RENEWABLE ENERGY AS PERCENTAGE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION
  • 34. NEW AND RETIRED COAL CAPACITY If current trends continue, by 2022 yearly retirements will exceed new capacity and the global coal fleet will begin to shrink
  • 35. DEFORESTATION
  • 36. TARGETS AND PLEDGES FOR RESTORATION
  • 37. AGRICULTURAL EMISSIONS
  • 38. CLIMATE FINANCE Public Private
  • 39. PHILANTHROPIC SPENDING FOR CLIMATE
  • 40. GREEN BOND ISSUANCE
  • 41. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURES 18 credit rating agencies committed to including environmental considerations more transparently and systematically in their ratings 580+ Signatories
  • 42. FOSSIL FUEL SUBSIDIES G7 countries continued to provide at least $100 billion a year supporting fossil fuels (2015-2016)
  • 43. CAPEX FOR COAL, OIL, AND GAS • Biggest movement is away from coal funding; governments and banks less and less willing to finance coal power and coal mines • Capex for oil and gas production has dropped since price of oil peaked in 2014
  • 44. CARBON PRICING 52 carbon pricing initiatives implemented or planned worldwide
  • 45. CONCLUSION
  • 46. CLIMATE WATCH – CLIMATEWATCHDATA.ORG
  • 47. QUESTIONS & ANSWERS Attendees can submit questions using the Q&A function at the bottom of their screen. Download the Paper www.wri.org/milestones Contact Us Kelly Levin, kelly.levin@wri.org
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