State Climate Change Action Program of Baja California (PEACC-BC)

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nn. http://peac-bc.cicese.mx. State Climate Change Action Program of Baja California (PEACC-BC). Tereza Cavazos Depto. de Oceanografía Física, CICESE. Oceans & Weather Impacting Business and Infrastructure The Maritime Alliance, San Diego, CA, 4 March 2011.
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nnhttp://peac-bc.cicese.mxState Climate Change Action Program of Baja California (PEACC-BC)Tereza CavazosDepto. de Oceanografía Física, CICESEOceans & Weather Impacting Business and InfrastructureThe Maritime Alliance, San Diego, CA, 4 March 2011Mexico’s Public Policy on Climate ChangeNational Development Program (2007-2012)nnAxis 4: Environmental SustainabilitySectoral ProgramsNational Strategy on Climate Change (2007)Special Program of CC (2009-2012)State Climate Change Action Programs (PEACC)(PND 2007-2012, Fig. VI.1 from SEMARNAT, 2009)Baja CaliforniannRegional Sustainable Development 6 transversal axesPEACC-BC GeneralCoordinationCICESECOLEFUABCTechnical SecretariatExternalExpertGroupsLocalExpertsAdvisoryReviewAgric/Ranch.Marine Ecos.HealthClimatologyFisheriesLegislationGHG Invent.WaterUrban Dev.EconomyEnergyBiodiversityCoastsHousingTransportSocietyPEACC Objectives (2008-2011)
  • To update GHG emissions inventory and scenarios
  • To develop regional climate change scenarios
  • To diagnose the state of socio-economic and environmental
  • sectors and to evaluate impacts and vulnerability due to
  • climate change
  • Goals
  • To identify opportunities for mitigation and to propose
  • strategies on adaptation and mitigationfor public policy
  • BC AGRICULTUREThe products of major commercial value are tomatoes, strawberries, wheat, onions and grapesBC Water51% of the surface water in BC comes from the Colorado River and 30% of the water consumption is from aquifers.WATER CONSUMPTION IN BCPUBLIC-URBAN 8%INDUSTRY 5%AGRICULTURE 87%Problematic Aquifers in Mexico (2003)OVEREXPLOITEDSALT INTRUSIONSALINIZATIONOVEREXPLOITED&SAL.OVEREXPL. & SOIL SAL.Regional Climate Change Scenarios35o25oBC-118o -112oIPCC: Global Scenarios of Climate ChangeGCMs Resolution(>250 km)IPCC: 23 Global Models (GCMs)Regional Models(< 50 km)Downscaling: Dynamical/Statistical Regional CC ScenariosIf CO2e increases, global temperature increases IPCC: Global GHG Emissions Scenariosnn 3.0 CTA2 2.0 CB1 2.5 CAtmospheric CO2concentration (ppm) 1.5 C0.0CYearRegional projections of climate change (selection of best GCMs for the region under B1 and A2 emissions scenarios)35o25oBC-118o -112oThe best models for the regionIPCC Models6 Models - 12 Simulations BCCR2 (NOR) - 1 CGCM47 (CAN) - 5 CNRM-C3 (FRA): 1 CSIRO-MK3 (AUS) - 1 MIROC3.2 (JPN) - 3 HADCM3 (UK) - 1 MON35o25oBC-118o -112o
  • Statistically downscaled CMIP3 projections (IPCC, 2007) at 12 km resolution using the bias correction technique from the
  • Livermore National Lab and Santa Clara University, California.
  • http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections
  • Projections of changes in temperature (oC) in Baja California during the 21st Century (relative 1961-1990)T (oC)
  • Ensemble of 6 IPCC models
  • (Median ± 1 std)
  • 23.0oC20.5oC18.0oCGrapevine climate/maturity groupings (Apr – Oct) COOL INTERMEDIATE WARM HOT 13 – 15°C 15 – 17°C 17 – 19°C 19 – 24°C GuadalupeValley, B.C.19°CCHARDONAYSAUVIGNON BLANCTEMPRANILLOMERLOTSYRAHTABLE GRAPESCABERNET SAUVIGNON GRENACHEZINFANDEL NEBIOLO(Jones 2006) RAISINSBidecadal change of annual temperature (°C) (relative to 1961-1990)A2: Altas emisiones2030-20491.5°C – 2°C2080-2099>4°C Bidecadal change of annual precipitation (%)(relative to 1961-1990) Colors other than white indicate that 2/3 of the models agree on the sign of change2010-2029-14% (26mm)2080-2099-36% (66mm)Bi-decadal change of seasonal precipitation (%) under A2. Colors other than white indicate that 2/3 of the models agree on the sign of change2080-2099 minus 1961-1990DJFMAMJJAChange in winter (DJF) precipitation (%) in Baja California. (relative to 1961-1990; blue dots indicate that 2/3 of the models agree on the sign of change)Large variability:El NiñoDJFDJFURBAN DEVELOPMENT: VULNERABILITYEl Descanso,Baja CaliforniaPlayas de TijuanaRoad Tecate-Ensenada(Tomado de Winckell & Le Page, 2003).TIJUANA – SAN DIEGO BORDERRisk areas during heavy precipitation eventsSan DiegoTijuanaWater AvailabilityPresentProjectionto 2100(Galindo 2008)Water Availability in BC: 2,500 Mm3/yrPer inhabitant: 1,000 m3/yr (Galindo 2008)Conclusions y Recommendations
  • Temperature in BC could increase between 1.5
  • and 4.5oC during the 21st century
  • Precipitation could decrease from 15 to 36%
  • Major Challenges: Water and extreme events
  • Efficient use of water and irrigation
  • Treatment and reuse of water
  • Desalinization?
  • Drought resistant plants
  • Urban Development
  • Monitoring, forecast and prevention
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